Penalties effect you “finishing drives”Archived Message
Posted by snipes824 on October 16, 2023, 12:13:39, in reply to "from Game on Paper"
You’re really reaching.
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MD gives us a face mask penalty around midfield, the EPA for that was only .78. the next play was a Feagin rush for 8 yards. EPA was very close to that at .66. just a comparison of how a 15 yard gain at midfield compares to an 8 yard gain from the opponents 35ish.
Later in the game Strain commits a PI penalty, EPA is 1.13. MD goes on to miss a FG, EPA from the miss was -3.27.
the EPA of that penalty trade off was only .35 points. The EPA of missing the kick (i.e. not scoring the ball with a scoring opportunity inside your opponents 40) was almost 10x that difference in the penalty EPA. Finishing drives >>>> penalties. so much so that penalties just don't effect the game enough to matter.
There is no macro stat anywhere that accounts for losing an 80-yard TD because a guy lined up wrong. I'm not aware of any stats kept for explosives lost due to penalty (if there is one, I'd love to see it), but if explosives are indeed one of the 5 factors (and rightfully so), *lost explosives* are also a factor because they are difficult to replicate.
I'm not aware of any stat that accounts for losing a turnover (another of the 5 factors) because a guy lines up a whisker offsides... or a stripsack that is overturned because the DE inadvertently pulls on the QB's facemask.
Penalties absolutely matter, but they are incredibly difficult to differentiate with data because there is no way to quantify what was lost due to penalty. Nobody keeps those stats. In the long run, penalties and yardage even out, agreed . In the long run, turnover luck tends to even out too.
But in-game, it matters... just like a TO or an explosive if the penalty is substantive in nature.