“The penalty didn’t matter nearly as much as missing the FG”
Come on. Of course the actual missed field goal play was “worse” in EPA. But if they had made it, and a penalty helped them get there, it mattered.
I’m sure the EPA of a TD pass is more than a DPI on 3rd down that gets a team to the 3 yard line. That doesn’t make the penalty immaterial.
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the EPA of the Tyler Strain penalty put MD in the scoring area. But they didn't finish the drive and the EPA shift from missing the FG was significantly bigger than the penalty.
the penalty didn't matter nearly as much as missing the FG.
what penalties do is they move the ball back and forth, just like any other play. from the spot on the field where the ball moves, there is an EPA associated with that. the EPA on penalty discrepancies rarely, and i mean rarely as in there is zero correlation between penalty yards and wins, effects the outcome of a game.
now, if you are telling me that one team is great at scoring TDs in the RZ and another team isn't, i will tell you that has a huge impact on the outcome of the game.
penalties don't matter guys. i'm telling you, they don't effect EPA enough to matter. it's just one play that is rarely an explosive.
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You’re really reaching.
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MD gives us a face mask penalty around midfield, the EPA for that was only .78. the next play was a Feagin rush for 8 yards. EPA was very close to that at .66. just a comparison of how a 15 yard gain at midfield compares to an 8 yard gain from the opponents 35ish.
Later in the game Strain commits a PI penalty, EPA is 1.13. MD goes on to miss a FG, EPA from the miss was -3.27.
the EPA of that penalty trade off was only .35 points. The EPA of missing the kick (i.e. not scoring the ball with a scoring opportunity inside your opponents 40) was almost 10x that difference in the penalty EPA. Finishing drives >>>> penalties. so much so that penalties just don't effect the game enough to matter.
There is no macro stat anywhere that accounts for losing an 80-yard TD because a guy lined up wrong. I'm not aware of any stats kept for explosives lost due to penalty (if there is one, I'd love to see it), but if explosives are indeed one of the 5 factors (and rightfully so), *lost explosives* are also a factor because they are difficult to replicate.
I'm not aware of any stat that accounts for losing a turnover (another of the 5 factors) because a guy lines up a whisker offsides... or a stripsack that is overturned because the DE inadvertently pulls on the QB's facemask.
Penalties absolutely matter, but they are incredibly difficult to differentiate with data because there is no way to quantify what was lost due to penalty. Nobody keeps those stats. In the long run, penalties and yardage even out, agreed . In the long run, turnover luck tends to even out too.
But in-game, it matters... just like a TO or an explosive if the penalty is substantive in nature.