Regarding 1, it was absolutely predictable and most (all?) viruses behave that wayArchived Message
Posted by meanjeans on November 3, 2023, 10:39:01, in reply to "Random thoughts"
I recall that being discussed and predicted as something that “would” happen very early on, before it happened. That we could count on it happening.
Not being argumentative, just presenting something I very clearly remember differently
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1. The evolution of covid to a much milder but more contagious strain was not predictable and made a huge difference in spread and deaths. So MMQBing about the decisions made before the evolution happened and could be studied will of course make lockdowns look worse and vaccination pushes look silly.
2. If we didn't have lockdowns, probably 2.5 million people would have died in the USA if the original covid spread throughout the entire population, overran hospitals, and initial decisions were made before doctors knew the basics of how to treat it.
3. There were a lot of mistakes made about lockdowns that people criticized and got right at the time. Obviously school closures lasting past the summer of 2020 when the data showed that school kids were safe and much less likely to spread is one of them.
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https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/covid-lockdowns-big-fail-joe-nocera-bethany-mclean-book-excerpt.html “By 2022, journalists, academics, and even some public-health officials were finally coming to grips with the enormous damage done to children — especially disadvantaged children — because of remote learning. A lengthy analysis by two professors in The Atlantic toted up some of the issues. First, millions of kids simply gave up on learning. In New York, even after schools had reopened, the chronic absentee rate was 40 percent — up from 26 percent before the pandemic. Studies showed that public-school children got less exercise (no recess) and ate more junk food (no free hot meals) during the pandemic. According to a CDC survey, during the first six months of 2021, nearly half the high-school students surveyed “felt persistently sad or helpless.” Parental emotional abuse was four times higher than in 2013, and parental physical abuse nearly doubled, The Atlantic reported. A study by three major research institutions, including Harvard’s Center for Education Policy Research, showed that the longer a school relied on remote learning, the further behind their students were. “In high-poverty schools that were remote for more than half of 2021, the loss was about half of a school year’s worth of typical achievement growth,” said Thomas Kane, the director of the Harvard center.”