The Deuce: Welcome back!*

Previous Message

You do, you weirdo. You clicked the link.

Current state:

To say this will be an offseason of turnover is a bit of an understatement. The Bears currently only have 33 first-team players under contract (18 on defense, 2 specialists, and only 13 on offense) with 14 more still on the practice squad. Let’s take a look at the under-contract players by position.

Offense-
QB: Williams, Bagent
This is arguably the most stable position the Bears have. Caleb is in his second season and the unquestioned starter. Bagent is a solid backup on the last year of a very cheap rookie deal. I’ve seen speculation that the Bears should trade Bagent now for a draft pick. While this is a very thirsty market for QBs, I can’t see anyone throwing a 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd round pick to you for Bagent. If you get a 4th rounder for him… great? Now you have to find a backup QB- the going rate for a competent one is in the $5-10M range. With all the holes you have as a team, you need to spend that money elsewhere. You’ll likely see the Bears add a couple QBs for training camp, but I doubt anyone besides Williams and Bagent make the opening day roster.

RB: Swift, R. Johnson
I’ll start off with the preface that I have no idea what Ben Johnson plans to do with the Bears offense, all I can do is see what he’s done in the past. He’s clearly preferred a work-share backfield, famously with Sonic (Jahmyr Gibbs) and Knuckles (David Montgomery) the last two seasons. Now a bit of good news/bad news- Good: D’Andre Swift has a year of experience with Ben Johnson’s offense. Bad: Johnson only gave Swift 99 carries to 262 for Jamaal Williams, with Swift being primarily relegated to a receiving back. While Roschon seems like a decent power back, I doubt he can carry a 200+ carry load. Thankfully, this is a fantastic draft for RBs. More on that later.

WR: Moore, Odunze, Scott
I have very high expectations for Moore and Odunze and am curious how Johnson chooses to deploy them. Will DJ play more in the middle of the field or will he be the explosive deep ball option? Will Rome be a true X or a power slot? They’re obviously going to need more options at this position, especially with Scott essentially on the side of a milk carton. One thing I’ve noticed that Johnson demands from his receivers is blocking. It makes the outside runs work. It makes the downfield plays go from 10 yard gains into TDs. I think you’ll see an addition or two as a blocking-specific WR along with a speed option.

TE: Kmet, Everett
Kmet should be a good fit for the inline-Y that Johnson has used in Detroit. I don’t think Kmet is suddenly Sam Laporta, but I think he can be 80-90% of that. I expect a decent bump from him next year. Everett… I’ll get to him in a bit.

OL: Wright, B. Jones, Amegadjie, Bates
That’s the entire list. I guess the silver lining is that most of the players on the terrible line won’t be back next year? Wright was good and seems to be rounding into form as a perfectly reliable RT. Jones was inconsistent and ended the year with a broken ankle. Amegadjie looked like a multi-year project at best that was not ready to play right away, and we saw next to nothing from Bates. The entire interior of the line needs to be rebuilt. Protecting Caleb has to be priority 1 for the offseason.

Defense-
DE: Sweat, Walker, Booker, Robinson
4 years and $98M doesn’t buy what it used to. After singing his big contract, Montez Sweat only accounted for 5.5 sacks and 12 QB hits in 16 games, both of which were less than what he provided in 9 games for the Bears last season (6 and 14, respectively). He has all the physical tools in the world, but that production is not going to cut it. Walker is a perfectly cromulent run-defending DE that should really be a rotational player. Booker was largely absent in his rookie season with only 1.5 sacks. Robinson is largely only a special teams player. Help is clearly needed.

DT: Billings, Dexter, Pickens
I thought Dexter took a nice step forward this year with his 5 sacks and showed some serious skills at disrupting the pocket from the inside, but 4 of those 5 sacks came in the first 5 games. He clearly faded down the stretch as help for him ran out. Billings was the only reliable interior run defender on the team and when he went down vs. AZ, the interior defense cratered. Pickens seems like just a guy. I couldn’t pick out any big plays he’s made in his 2 years if I tried.

LB: Edmunds, Edwards, Sewell
You can include Edmunds in the players-who-got-paid-and-disappeared column along with Montez Sweat, though I don’t know if Edmunds was really all that good. He’s got incredible physical tools but doesn’t have any instincts for the game. You have one more year before you can get out from under his massive contract. TJ Edwards has a bit of the opposite problem- good instincts but can’t always get to the spots his brain wants him to go. He’s a good downhill LB in the run game and a liability in the pass game that routinely gets exploited. Sewell has been a special teamer.

CB: J. Johnson, Stevenson, Smith
Jaylon Johnson is elite. He’s one of the top 4 CBs in the league. Enough said. I felt like Stevenson regressed this year from a really promising rookie year. The edge that he played with as a rookie often boiled over into mental lapses and outright stupidity this year. Hopefully a new coach can rein him back in. I think Smith is a very solid CB3 who could be a competent CB2.

NB: Gordon
Another elite player. Gordon is one of the best nickels in the league.

S: Byard, Brisker, Hicks, Owens
Byard has clearly lost a step but provides some much-needed direction at the back. Brisker is a very good box safety but plays like he’s on Jackass and is often injured because of it. I thought Hicks did a really good job as a fill-in and could be a Byard replacement in 2026. Owens is fine as a 3rd or 4th safety and a special team player.

Special Teams-
K: Santos
He’s good inside 40 yards but doesn’t have the same leg that most elite kickers in the NFL do.

P: Taylor
I hoped to see more from him as a rookie but he’s set as the punter for the next couple of years.

Additions and Subtractions:
overthecap.com has the Bears currently with $62.97M in space. Say $63M for ease of conversation.

Cap Casualties: Due to the way the contracts are structured, there are only four real viable candidates for a cap casualty: Gerald Everett, Kevin Byard, Demarcus Walker Ryan Bates.

To me, Everett is a no-brainer. As a receiving TE, he had 36 yards receiving on the year and was a terrible blocker. You accrue $1M in dead money but save $5.5M vs. the cap.

Bates would seem like a no-brainer as well as you can save $4M with zero dead money but he is currently only one of four linemen you have under contract and the only one with any experience snapping a ball. At worst, he can provide interior line flexibility and depth as you sign and draft over him for next year. If you get to a point where he's expendable, that's a great position.

Walker would only cost $667k in dead money with $5.2M in savings. That’s about the cost for a player of his ability. I could see it going either way but I’m keeping Walker as a rotational player.

Byard is an $8.5M hit next year that can save $7M towards the cap if cut. As the signal caller on the back end, I'd still favor keeping him for another year.

Cutting Everett and keeping Bates and Byard brings our total to $68.5M.

Extensions and re-signings:
The biggest extension that needs to happen is Kyler Gordon. He's going into the final year of his rookie deal and is one of the best nickel corners in the game. Taron Johnson set the market for nickels last year at 3 years/ $30M. I'd give him a slight premium on that $10M AAV and go 4 years/ $45M starting with next year's deal to keep his cap hit at the rookie rate of $4.23M with a small signing bonus of say $10M. I’ll amortize that over the 5 years of the deal, so he’ll only cost us $2M extra vs. the cap this year. With Byard's $8.5M coming off the books next year, Gordon can get a nice bump with the guaranteed money at that point.

Other players I'm bringing back:
Jack Sanborn, Josh Blackwell, Amen Ogbongbemina on a short-term deal with a slight bump. 2 years/ $5M for Sanborn, 2/ $4 for Blackwell and Ogbongbemina. All three are core special teams players and Sanborn and Blackwell showed the ability to provide defensive value in a pinch as needed.

Veteran minimums for Patrick Scales, DeAndre Carter, Travis Homer, Jaylon Jones, and Matt Pryor. I need the first four for special teams and I feel like Pryor showed some flashes as a fill in guard when needed. I'd like him back as depth.

Notable players not returning:
Keenan Allen- He’s likely going to command $15M+ very much in the twilight of his career. I’d rather spend that money on the line and give those targets to Odunze and Moore. And, again, receivers in this scheme need to also be blockers. I don’t think Keenan has any desire to do that.
Teven Jenkins- It’s a shame. I really like Teven, but he’s always hurt. He’s missed 23 games in 4 years and will command probably $13M-$15M annually. I can’t do it.
Coleman Shelton- I saw a projection for him on PFF that he’ll be a $5M AAV player in free agency. WAT? I’d bring him back for the minimum, but not anywhere near $5M.
Marcedes Lewis- 12 years older than our new offensive coordinator. I feel his best playing days might be behind him.
Larry Borom- I’m completely over the Larry Borom experience. He has some value in his versatility, but he’s bad at the 4 positions he can play.
Darrell Taylor- He started with a bang. 2 sacks and 8 tackles in his first game for the Bears but only had 1 sack in the last 16 weeks. We need better.

The Gordon extension and the re-signings take about $14M from the cap. So, the working money I have is about $54.5M. Having done the math on previous draft pick rookie contracts, the pool I need for picks is approximately $11.5M. Spoiler alert, I make a trade and add a mid round pick, so that bumps up to $12.5M so we really have ~$42M total for free agency.

Free Agency:
When you do the deep dive on what the roster really looks like and you see that you've only got 18 offensive players under contract, and you have to add at least 8-10 players in free agency and the draft just to the offense, I hate to say it, but I don't see any way I can spend half of my entire free agent nut on Trey Smith at guard. Moreover, after the Super Bowl, can you see a situation where the Chiefs let Smith out of the building with the way that Patrick Mahomes was mauled all night?

Sorry to disappoint, but no Trey Smith in this mock offseason. With a bit over $40M, you can legitimately make 2 big signings, 1 medium signing, and a handful of small/prospective signings.

Big signing #1- Drew Dalman. 4 years/ $50M.
Priority 1 for me is fixing the interior of the OL. Dalman is only 26 and is coming off a very good year. He's a premier run blocker at center and very good at organizing the line.

Big signing #2- Josh Sweat. 3 years/ $60M.
Sweat probably made himself an extra $10M this week repeatedly getting to Mahomes. He's still only 27, about 6 months younger than the not-related Montez across from him but provides similar length and athleticism. I think he'll prefer a 3-year deal vs. 4 or 5 so he can cash in one more time at age 30.

Medium signing- Kevin Zeitler. 1 year/ $6.5M.
Zeitler will be 35 next month. I'm usually not one for throwing out contracts to linemen that age but Zeitler has been excellent for the Lions this year, plus he already has a leg up having played a year under Ben Johnson. He's a plug and play RG for probably 1 year that can help ease the transition for the entire line and hopefully coach up some draft picks.

Prospective signing- Jedrick Wills. 1 year/ $3M.
Wills was the #10 pick in the 2020 draft and has not remotely lived up to that selection in his 4 years with the Browns. I did not re-sign Larry Borom, so I need a swing tackle. I'm going to give Wills a shot with the natural ability he has. Worst case, he's a backup that you hopefully don't need to use. Best case, a new setting with new coaches unlocks the potential he always had and he's even an improvement on Braxton Jones.

Former Lions- Tim Patrick (WR) 1 year/ $1.5M, Shane Zylstra (TE) 1 year/ vet minimum. I'm bringing in two players familiar with Johnson's offense as depth pieces that know what's expected of them when it comes to blocking, which as mentioned before is essential in this offense.

Last vet minimum- Hunter Long (TE). Block-first TE formerly of the Rams.

With typical backloading of the contracts, this will account for approximately $35M.

NFL Draft:
Pick 10- Ashton Jeanty RB BSU
I know. I can feel your anger. I know. Don’t rage quit this post. You’ve come this far. Give me a second to explain. Yes, “protecting Caleb is priority 1”, I said that. I wrote this entire draft section initially with Will Campbell as this pick, but I don’t think Campbell is going to be available at 10. Daniel Jeremiah had him going 4th to New England. The Panthers at 8 and Saints at 9 also are desperate for OL help. If Campbell is gone, I don’t love Armand Membou from Mizzou or Tyler Booker from Bama nearly enough at 10 to go with positional need over talent. I think Jeanty is one of the two best players in this draft. A legitimate blue-chip prospect. In 2-3 years, I think we’re talking about Jeanty, Bijan, and Gibbs as the top 3 RBs in the league. He’s a true three-down back with a rare combination of strength, speed, intelligence, savvy, and skills PLUS he’s an excellent receiver and more than willing blocker. If you need someone from this draft class to take 200+ carries, it’s him. He's Knuckles 2.0.

Pick 39- TJ Sanders DT South Carolina
I wish I hadn’t deleted the paragraph I previously wrote about TJ Sanders.
Anyway, I like him a lot. He’s a twitchy pass-rush-first 3-technique that you can use right from the start for 30-35 snaps per game. He can collapse the pocket and make the QB uncomfortable. Gervon Dexter desperately needs someone like this next to him on pass downs to reduce the automatic double-teams he was getting. I think Sanders needs a year or two to develop strength and learn to defend the run, but he has a very high ceiling.

Pick 41 traded to SF for picks 43 and 111.
Pick 43- Jonah Savaiinaea OG/OT Arizona
I would love Gray Zabel from ND State here, but I think he’s now a first rounder. Sava… Savinah…. Jonah… started out as a guard for Arizona in 2022 before kicking mostly to RT last year and then split time between LT and RT this year. He’s 6’5” 336# with surprisingly quick feet, which is why many will still project him at tackle in the NFL. I like that combination of big and quick at guard for him.

Pick 72- Tez Johnson WR Oregon
No player jumped off the screen at Senior Bowl week more than Tez Johnson. No one could guard him. No one could even get a hand on him. He is a lose-you-in-a-phone-booth type. So why is he there at the top of the 3rd? He’s tiny. 156 pounds. “I thought you said we needed blockers at WR?” Yeah, we do, but we also need guys that can fly around and get wide open, and for only being 156 pounds, Johnson fights his ass off for a block. He’s feisty. As a 3rd receiver and gadget option, I’d be excited to see what Ben Johnson could do.

Pick 111- Luke Kandra OG Cincinnati
Kandra is one of my draft dark horses. He’s overlooked because he doesn’t have the athleticism that earlier picks have but he is a through-the-echo-of the-whistle type guard with good strength and solid technique.

Pick 148- Jackson Hawes TE Georgia Tech
6’5” 260# with great blocking skills, he had a nice Senior Bowl week showing more receiving skills than I gave him credit for. I think his blocking alone keeps him as a solid TE2 in the NFL for the next 8 years

Pick 197- Jamaree Caldwell DT Oregon
6’1” 340#- he’s not subtle and he’s not a 3 down player, but when your run defense was as bad as the Bears were last year, you need to find unitaskers. Caldwell will walk a guard back into a running lane.

Pick 235- Carson Vinson OT Alabama A&M
Pure speculative pick again based on the Senior Bowl week. He was much more athletic than I thought and held up against top competition better than I expected an Alabama A&M tackle to do. Likely a practice squad player, but I’ll take the lotto ticket.

2025 opening day lineup
QB: Williams, Bagent
RB (“knuckles”): Jeanty, R. Johnson
RB (“sonic”): Swift, Homer
WRZ: Moore, Scott
WRX: Odunze, Patrick
WR slot: T. Johnson, Carter
TE: Kmet, Hawes, Zylstra, Long
LT: B. Jones, Willis (swing), Vinson
LG: Bates, Savaiinaea /Kandra
C: Dalman, Bates
RG: Zeitler, Savaiinaea /Kandra
RT: Wright, Willis (swing), Vinson

DE: J. Sweat, Booker
DT: Dexter, Sanders
DT: Billings, Pickens, Caldwell
DE: M. Sweat, Walker, Robinson
LB: Edmunds, Sanborn
LB: Edwards, Sewell, Ogbongbemiga
CB: J. Johnson, J. Jones
CB: Stevenson, Smith
NB: Gordon, Blackwell
FS: Byard, Hicks
SS: Brisker, Owens

K: Santos
P: Taylor
KR/PR: Carter, T. Johnson
LS: Scales